Rečiausi CS2 skinai: pagal tikimybę surikiuota matematiškai rečiausių apyvartoje esančių daiktų duomenų bazė

Most rarity discussions in CS2 default to price as a proxy. Price is a useful signal but conflates demand with scarcity — a $5,000 skin can be rare-and-undesired or common-and-popular. This piece ranks the rarest skin variants by compounded probability of existence across all the independent rolls that produce a single instance: rarity tier, finish-within-tier, pattern phase, float tier, StatTrak status, and any souvenir-specific layers. The ranking surfaces some items that command less price attention than their probability would suggest.

Methodology

The probability of any specific instance is the product of every independent roll required to produce it. For a knife instance, this is at minimum:

Top-rarity ranking by per-roll probability

Why discontinued case items are NOT in the top of this list

Several of the most expensive items in CS2 — M4A4 Howl, AK-47 Wild Lotus, AWP Medusa — are not at the top of a per-roll probability ranking despite being extremely valuable. The reason is that probability is conditional on the case still being openable. An item from a fully-discontinued case has zero chance of being newly produced; the rare circulation is a function of how many cases were opened in total during the active period. These items qualify under a different scarcity metric (population scarcity), not per-roll scarcity.

The Karambit Emerald StatTrak FN: the rarest single combination

The combination of Karambit (rarest knife type when adjusted for case availability), Doppler (the Emerald-bearing finish), Emerald (~0.4% pattern incidence), StatTrak (~10% roll), and Factory New (~7%) produces a per-roll probability of approximately 0.0000000077, or about 1 in 1.3 billion. To put this in perspective: at a sustained global opening rate of 50 million cases per year that contain this specific combination's parent case, an expected 0.04 examples per year would be produced.

The verified circulation of Karambit Doppler Emerald StatTrak FN examples is empirically below 50 across all CS2 history. Each verified transaction generally sets a new comparable price point, and the spread between bid and ask on any given example can exceed 100% because the buyer pool is single-digit individuals.

Souvenir compounding: why MVP stickers add a probability layer

Souvenir items add additional probability layers that no regular skin has. To produce a Souvenir AWP Dragon Lore FN with a top MVP sticker requires:

• The viewer must drop a souvenir during the specific Major where Cobblestone is in rotation.
• The drop must select Cobblestone as the active map collection.
• The contents must roll Covert tier (0.64%).
• The Covert finish must select Dragon Lore (1 of 1 if Dragon Lore is the only Covert in the collection).
• The float must roll Factory New (~7%).
• The MVP sticker placed on the souvenir must be from a top-tier player (probabilistic given the match).

The MVP layer is what distinguishes a $30,000 Souvenir Dragon Lore from a $200,000 Souvenir Dragon Lore — and it is a layer that no normal item has. This is why souvenir Coverts dominate the absolute price ceiling in CS2 despite some of them being below the per-roll probability threshold of certain knife combinations.

The float-rarity layer at the limits

Sub-0.001 floats add a ~1% (≈1/700 within Factory New) probability layer because the in-tier float distribution is uniform. For unrestricted skins, a Factory New roll has float between 0 and 0.07; sub-0.001 represents 1/70 of that range, or 1.43% within Factory New. Compounded with the 7% FN probability, sub-0.001 floats represent approximately 0.1% of all rolls of an unrestricted skin.

On restricted-range skins (no Factory New), sub-0.001 floats may be impossible — a skin with wear range 0.18–1.00 cannot roll below 0.18, period. The float-rarity layer therefore depends entirely on the wear range of the underlying skin, and naive comparisons across skins miss this structural variation.

The 'rare and forgotten' bucket

A subset of items rank in the top of per-roll probability rankings but receive less collector attention than expected. Examples include:

• Specific Doppler Phase 4 examples on lesser-collected knives (Survival Knife, Skeleton Knife rare variants).
• Sub-0.001 Marble Fade Tier-2 (Tricolor) examples on top knives — rarer than Tier-1 FFI floats above 0.001 but priced lower.
• Mid-tier souvenir Coverts on lesser-played maps with mid-tier MVP stickers.
• StatTrak Factory New variants of restricted-range skins where FN itself is a ~5–8% roll layer on top of the StatTrak roll.

These represent potential 'value' opportunities for collectors focused on raw probability rather than recognized brand-name rarity, though pricing still tracks demand more than supply over short windows.

Practical takeaways

• Per-roll rarity is the product of all independent roll layers — it can fall to 1 in a billion at the extremes.
• Discontinued case items are not in this ranking — their circulation is fixed and not a function of current per-roll probability.
• The Karambit Emerald StatTrak FN is the rarest single combination in active circulation at approximately 1 in 1.3 billion per roll.
• Souvenir items have an MVP probability layer that no regular skin has, producing the absolute ceiling of the price distribution.
• Collectors targeting probability over price can find under-attended outliers in the long tail of the rarity ranking.

Probability and price are correlated but not identical in CS2. The rarest items by per-roll probability are at the extreme tail of the knife and souvenir distributions; the most expensive items add demand and discontinuation layers on top. Anyone interested in the structural scarcity of CS2 — independent of fashion or hype — should anchor analysis on per-roll probability first, then layer demand and circulation on top. The math produces a ranking that is sometimes counterintuitive but always defensible.